The New Recruiting Reality in College Athletics

For years, college sports valued recruits that took time to develop. Every roster had players who didn’t yet fit the prototype but showed long-term potential. Coaches would invest in these players, trusting that with time and experience, they would develop into stars.

In recent years, this model is rapidly disappearing. Not because these athletes no longer exist, but because the modern college sports landscape is being changed at an unprecedented rate by NIL and the transfer portal.

The transfer portal has made experienced players easier to acquire than ever before. Instead of waiting years for a freshman to develop, coaches can fill roster gaps with athletes who already have proven production and game experience. That makes transfers a safer, more immediate option than first-year players who may need time to adjust. Take journeyman guard Truth Harris. He transferred multiple times in his career, and he’s been extremely open in his use of the portal and NIL opportunities to navigate his career. Recently, he ended up at La Salle with a reported five-figure NIL component connected with his move.

Harris’s path highlights how NIL deals can influence transfer decisions. Today, a player’s earning potential is closely tied to visibility and immediate contribution. Players who produce right away gain exposure, social media traction, and endorsement opportunities, while those who sit and develop do not. The recruitment of high-profile transfer Boogie Fland, who moved from Arkansas to Florida with NIL backing that included multi-million dollar endorsement considerations, exemplifies this new calculus. Programs are increasingly prioritizing players who can contribute immediately, even if it means fewer opportunities for long-term development. From an institutional perspective, landing an athlete with a major NIL profile brings many benefits: increased fan engagement, stronger media attention, and recruiting advantages.

Quarterbacks like Dylan Raiola further illustrate this shift. Raiola, one of the most marketable young players in college football, transferred from Nebraska to Oregon. His moves were reportedly driven by exposure, platform, and NIL earning potential. Top programs now compete not only for talent but for the ability to provide players with immediate visibility and monetization opportunities.

One clear signal is freshman impact in college basketball. In the 2018-2019 season, the year the transfer portal launched, 67 freshmen averaged 30 minutes a game, with almost 400 freshmen averaging 15 minutes a game. By 2024-2025, those numbers dropped to 34 freshmen at 30 minutes per game and fewer than 250 freshman reaching the 15 minutes mark.

The scoring data tells the same story. Freshmen scoring saw a severe drop after the NCAA’s interim NIL policy began in July 2021. The following season saw significant declines in freshman scoring in across each major conference. In the Big 12, freshmen scoring dropped 60%, from 19% of total points to 7.5%. Younger players aren’t just getting less minutes; they’re playing smaller roles when they do get the chance to play.

These numbers matter because playing time is development. Freshmen who average 25–30 minutes per game are being trusted in real roles. They’re learning through mistakes, adjusting to the speed of the college game, and building confidence. Historically, this was how future upperclassmen stars were made. Rotational minutes around the 15-minute mark used to serve as a runway for system-raw players to gradually grow into contributors. With far fewer freshmen getting those opportunities today, that developmental runway is shrinking nationwide. Overall, it signals that coaches are leaning less on long-term growth and more on immediate reliability.

The change is also impacting high school recruiting. There’s overwhelming evidence that NIL and the transfer portal are squeezing high school recruits out of roster spots. Sports and recruiting analysts note that some top 4 and 5-star recruits receive very large potential NIL offers even before signing with a college, which can sway where they commit and how early they do so.

As programs rely more on proven transfers, fewer freshmen are earning the meaningful minutes that once helped raw talent grow into future stars. While the new system creates opportunity and mobility, it also narrows the developmental pathway that historically shaped some of college athletics’ best players.

In a period of rapid transformation in college athletics, MK Hustle Sports and Entertainment promises to help athletes navigate this evolving landscape.